The Post Racing Forum | Post Racing (2024)

  1. Affordability checks part 99 – what happens now?

I reckon everyone is now probably losing the will to live regarding this topic but it just will not go away.

You’ve got your finger on this pulse much more than I have because you are constantly having to discuss the intricacies with the people in the press.

My overriding feeling is, having skim read most of the articles that come out, is that the Gambling Commission hasn’t got a baldy clue about what it is doing….it is just doing it.

The Racing Post asked a senior analyst for an opinion and he came back with a list of questions that indicated they do not actually have anything in place to determine what the data means when it comes in. They effectively are not measuring results, just producing them.

Over to you!

  1. Horses withdrawn with a bad draw – should the authorities do something?

I sent you a message about this last weekend when all the high drawn runners at Chester started coming out, and it was getting ridiculous. What is the point of Chester opening up races for double figure fields, when as soon as the horses have been allotted a draw, trainers then pull out those they feel have no chance?

They do not do it immediately either, so punters playing e.w. on the 17 runner race they had suddenly saw their fourth place disappear as the field shrank to 13.

And what about the vets giving certificates to trainers, or the abuse of self certs?

If I were Chester I’d limit my field size to six….at least they’d all run!

Drives me nuts it does!

  1. Rule 4 – last minute changes to the prices meaning a higher deduction for winning punters – coincidence, I don’t think so.

It’s all a bit like dynamic pricing used by superstar bands, who get people to queue up online for tickets and then, because the algorithms dictate they can, the price is hiked to “reflect demand”….well, it’s probably nothing like that but I just wanted to give Oasis a bit of down the banks.

  1. Hats off to Aidan – City Of Troy to Work at Southwell 20th September and the public are welcome

I had to laugh when I first read Aiden’s comments about this. He told the reporter they were going to Southampton! When it was pointed out it was Southwell he said, “good job someone else organises this then, isn’t it!”

It’s brilliant that he’s doing this, and the public can go along to see the horse.

Be great to see home based trainers doing likewise if they ever get another good one!

  1. Hollie Doyle 1000 winners – pretty impressive stats

They include 39 Group and Listed race winners and was sitting eighth in the Championship after riding that 1000th winner.

One thing she knows that many top jockeys don’t….and I include Fallon in that comment….is how to ride Goodwood. She has won £1.3m at that track.

There are not many of her rides you could look back at that have lost and think she could/should have done better.

Saturday Racing

1.15pm Haydock

Group 3, seven runner field, which has been about average these last five seasons at least.

I’m seeing no advantage from an age perspective because whilst a 3-y-o winner is rare, just two in the last 10 running’s of this, the number representing that age group in this race has been small, just 14.

Weight ranges too are not saying much, and so all I have to work with is what the market told us and I see only two winners trading bigger than 11/2 and, in an ideal world you want to be front two on the tissue because six of the last 10 winners, and four of the last five winners, were at up there.

That suggests our winner tomorrow is one of:

  • CICERO’S GIFT
  • CLOVE HITCH

The second named is a 3-y-o who will be carrying just 8st 11lb….I can find just one winner in the last 10 years that won carrying less than 9st.

I’ll be dutching so I’m fine but looking for a solo play I’d have to go with CICERO’S GIFT.

This is not a top quality field…at least, it doesn’t “feel” like one. My solo play has only won a Handicap this season and was last of seven at Goodwood at the beginning of August….probably ground related as he needs it slower than it was that day.

He beat HOLLOWAY BOY by half a length in that Handicap he won and is better off at the weights tomorrow but I’m still anything but confident about anything here to be honest.

Because I must….:

RON – CICERO’S GIFT

SEAN – CICERO’S GIFT

2.00pm Kempton

An all weather juvenile Group 3 that has one trading miles clear of the rest, SYMBOL OF STRENGTH, who is around 6/5 as I speak, it’s then 13/2 bar.

He is currently, officially, rated 107….the third favourite, IT AIN’T TWO…who did the OMMS a good turn a week ago in a Class 2 Conditions Stakes, is, officially 12lb inferior. The second favourite, BRIAN, is a full stone inferior.

If he reproduces his Gimcrack third, where he had the Molecombe winner behind him in fourth, he should win this doing cartwheels.

I could go looking for ghosts, I could say he has gone off 80/1 to land that Group 2 but being with an unfashionable trainer most likely accounts for that SP….like I say, if he can repeat that form, he wins.

RON – SYMBOL OF STRENGTH

SEAN – SYMBOL OF STRENGTH

2.35pm Kempton

The seven runner, Group 3 September Stakes next and three of these you can draw a line through straight away. It is currently 20/1 bar the four at the front of the market, which again suits me just fine as I only want to be working with the front three on the tissue anyway….I’d have netted the last nine winning dutch’s doing that.

The winner of this in 2021 comes back for another go, HAMISH around15/8 right now but he’s going to have to be a proper stats buster to win this at the age of eight. In the last 10 years only one older than six has won this….and that was exactly 10 years ago.

A 3-y-o took it nine years ago, when JACK HOBBS won@ 1/5 and so a Podcast selection picks itself because the stats say neither HAMISH or KALAPANA can win and, with zero confidence I’ll say LION’S PRIDE takes it for the Gosden’s, the yard that has produced three of the last five winners of this race, twice when John alone held the licence.

Six of the last 10 winners arrived having neither won or placed last time out….and he fits after finishing last of five to AL AASY at Goodwood.

RON – LION’S PRIDE

SEAN – HAMISH

3.35pm Haydock

The Sprint Cup and 3-y-o’s had a superb record here in the years 2014 – 2019, winning five of those six renewals. In the last six years though, older horses have held sway with five and six year olds winning two apiece, a four year old also getting in on the act.

Looking at tomorrow’s market though, it very much appears a 3-y-o is expected to win, four in the front five on the tissue and it is currently 12/1 bar those front five.

That’s important because the winner of eight of the last 10 running’s of this were sitting front four on the tissue.

At the weights INISHERIN is clearly the best in of that quartet but I’m looking at how the draw may have affected the result and again, all four seem positioned “right”….middle to high feels best and they are drawn 10, 11, 13, 15.

Eight of the last 10 winners arrived having won or placed last time out and if I apply that we lose INISHERIN and JASOUR, and my shortlist is:

  • ELITE STATUS
  • SWINGALONG

The first named runs for the same bloke that owns INISHERIN, and the two left come from the same yard, that of Karl Burke, who has had a brilliant season.

Dutch, obviously but I’m looking for one to pop in here as a solo play and I’m going to run with the 3-y-o, ELITE STATUS.

They have been all over everything this season and this horse did the Podcast an 8/1 favour back in May, and I do not think this is the strongest Group 1 I have ever seen….which would be just as well because ELITE STATUS only has Group 3 and Listed wins to his name so far.

No confident at all and he’s a 20/80

RON – ELITE STATUS – 20/80

SEAN – BUCANERO FUERTE – E.W.

4.07pm Haydock

A Juvenile Listed race, eight to run through the sift and every winner to date has carried in excess of 9st 3lb so that rules out Ed Walker trained QILIN QUEEN, who is also priced to lose because I’m not interested in anything away from the front duo on the tissue.

Seven of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite, and that includes the last four winners so it’s one of:

  • AGE OF GOLD
  • LUTHER

The best prices I can see tell me it’s 15/2 bar that pair so I feel solid ground under my betting feet here.

I can dutch to profit, so I will, but to split them for the Podcast all I can do is use official Ratings and right now LUTHER is 5lb the better horse and tomorrow they race off level weights so, no brainer really.

RON – LUTHER

SEAN – STARK WARNING – E.W.

OMMS

  • KING DAVID – 16/1 > 9/1 – WON 7/1
  • DESERT FOOTSTEPS – 10/1 > 6/1 – WON 13/2
  • NAMMOS – 8/1 > 3/1 – WON 9/4F

Something for the weekend

RON – ELITE STATUS – 20/80

SEAN – CICERO’S GIFT

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